So, the first revision of the advance estimate for 3rd quarter GDP came out.
I had commented before on the advance estimate.
And, like the BEA, I am updating and revising my entry there.
(1) Real GDP grew at a 3.6% pace, a substantial upward revision from the 2.8% - if I may be allowed to give myself a pat on the back, I had previously said "I don't put much stock in advance estimates". This, my friends, is why. I'm also going to make a prediction for the final revision which will come out in a month: I think it will be below 3.6%, but above 2.8% - it's pretty typical for the final revision to get a result that is between the first two estimates.
(2) I had misinterpreted the data before. The 1.8% increase in prices was an annualized rate - that number's revision kept it the same as before.
Based on this, I would have revise some of my predictions.
At this point, there is no evidence that the excess reserves are actually hitting the economy - as a result, I don't see any reason that a crash would be imminent at this point. The evidence for an artificial boom is not clear at this point, so I don't know that an inevitable crash is coming. However, I still worry about excess reserves, as those have the potential to create a boom-bust cycle if they hit the economy in any significant way.